Double chance and goal ranges: reading the summary
Prognostix editorial team ยท Published
The match summary places double chance and a goal range beside the predicted score. They answer different questions: one covers two outcomes, the other describes a band of total goals. They are not independent confirmations of the same prediction.
Double chance: 1X, X2 and 12
1X covers a home win or draw; X2 a draw or away win; 12 either team winning, excluding a draw. In a teaching example, 2-0 and 1-1 satisfy 1X, while 0-1 does not. Covering two outcomes does not make a selection certain and says nothing on its own about whether the offered price is worthwhile.
How we select double chance
Our current rule covers the published 1X2 pick: a home win becomes 1X and an away win becomes X2. For a draw, we add the team with more expected goals in the Extras estimates, choosing 1X when those means are equal. This is not a separate outcome-probability model and this rule currently does not select 12. The displayed strength still rates only the main 1X2 pick.
A goal range includes both endpoints
The summary range covers the whole match: goals by both sides over 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 1โ3 range includes one, two or three goals: 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1 qualify; 0-0 and 3-1 do not. A 0โ2 range includes 0-0. These are teaching examples, not forecasts for real fixtures. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded.
How the range is calculated
We add the expected first- and second-half goal means for each team, then add both teams for the match mean and calculate Poisson quartiles. We do not add the endpoints of the half-time ranges or build the band around the editorial exact score. These are distinct processes, so the exact-score scenario may fall outside the modelโs central band; that does not make it impossible.
How this differs from Over/Under and exact scores
Over 2.5 needs at least three goals and has no upper bound; a 1โ3 goal range also imposes a maximum. A 3-1 result is Over 2.5 but outside 1โ3. An exact score specifies the distribution: 2-1 and 1-2 have equal totals but different winners. Evaluate these markets separately instead of treating them as interchangeable successes.
Model range versus observed odds
A goal range is an experimental estimate, not necessarily a line offered by a bookmaker. We do not display a double-chance or goal-range price unless verified: the reference price shown on the match page concerns the indicated 1X2 selection. โMarket snapshot, not live oddsโ identifies a price observation rather than a continuous feed. No range is a guarantee or a calibrated success probability.
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