Extras explained: corners, shots, cards and scorers
Prognostix editorial team · Published
Extras supplement the analysis with predicted count ranges per team and for the match. These are experimental forecasts, not events that have already happened. Possible scorers follow a separate editorial process and appear below the table.
Corners and shots on target: reading the counts
The columns show home, away and match total. Shots on target are on-target attempts, not all shots and not predicted goals. Club estimates use the last five available league results before the fixture, at least three valid observations, regularization toward a league reference and the opponent’s conceded counts. A 3–5 interval includes three, four or five events.
Yellow cards and offsides
Cards mean yellow cards only, not reds or bookmaker card points; referee effects are not modelled. Offsides mean those committed by the team. The current club fallback uses rounded league-season averages with retained sample counts, not the last five games. Opponent offside traps are not modelled. An operator’s settlement definition can differ from the source’s statistical count.
First and second half refer to goals
These rows estimate each team’s goals and their combined total within that half, not the half’s 1X2 outcome or a half-time/full-time combination. Each half includes its own stoppage time. Clubs have observed half-time scores; national-team goals currently use a general timing split derived from club leagues rather than a team-specific national timing profile.
What the current Poisson model does
An expected mean is used to calculate the 25th and 75th percentiles of a Poisson distribution, producing a central band of counts. With discrete outcomes, the theoretical probability inside that band is not necessarily exactly 50%. Its coverage has not yet been validated against real results. Pace, dependencies, dismissals and tactical changes can challenge a simple count distribution. We do not present these intervals as measured betting success probabilities.
Possible scorers: conditional on starting
We identify at most one candidate per team after checking likely participation and availability. This is an editorial choice based on attacking role, not an individual Poisson scoring probability. “If starting” is essential: a call-up does not ensure minutes and a predicted lineup is not an official team sheet. “To be confirmed” means insufficient evidence, not a reason to automatically select the most famous player.
Why some fields contain a dash
A dash means insufficient data, not a prediction of zero events. Samples and competitions can differ: national data concern the available edition, while club season offside averages may cover an older sample than other statistics. Online pages are checked and references retained; not every value on the site updates live. A missing field is preferable to an estimate based on the wrong season or definition.
Reviewing Extras after a match
Compare the observed count with the inclusive band using the same event definition and time period. For scorers, also check the starting condition and keep unassessable cases separate. Dated archives preserve original selections; the main-market audit does not automatically calculate Extras performance. The 1X2 strength label does not transfer to any row in this table.
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